Monday, August 30, 2010

Reforms and Consumer Confidence

ICPS's latest consumer confidence report has a rather misleading title

"GOVERNMENT PLANS SPOIL CONSUMER MOOD"

which the press has gladly copied

http://www.kyivpost.com/news/business/bus_general/detail/80364/

I have a hard time believing that government policy is the main issue here.

And, when reading the press release even ICPS doesnt seem to blame the government that much either:

“The Government’s plans to institute a series of unpopular reforms, especially to raise rates for energy and increase the pensionable age have been received rather coldly by most Ukrainians,” says ICPS Social Economy Program Manager Maksym Boroda, “although the pressure to do so is the result of revived cooperation with the IMF. At the same time, a slowdown in the economic revival coupled with a heatwave that has been threatening this year’s grain harvest has caused Ukraine’s consumers to feel more pessimistic about economic prospects.”


Internationally, pessimism has grown (stock markets have been declining), something one cannot blame on the Ukrainian government, and something that should also affect the Ukrainian economy and the Ukrainian mood.

Moreover, if there indeed will be unpopular reforms, while in the short run having possibly a negative effect on the mood of people, shouldn't they have a positive effect in the long run? In fact, people that understand the need for reforms, even unpopular reforms, should have an improved mood even in the short run when they see the government will actually implement such reforms.

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