Thursday, August 12, 2010

Critical level of Debt -36% vs 60%

According to Tihipko Ukraine's external debt, now at 36% of GDP has reached a critical level(http://www.ukrinform.ua/eng/order/?id=195205&ulq=tihipko


According to Reinhart and Rogoff's research

"Our main findings are: First, the relationship between government debt and real GDP growth is weak for debt/GDP ratios below a threshold of 90 percent of GDP. Above 90 percent, median growth rates fall by one percent, and average growth falls considerably more. We find that the threshold for public debt is similar in advanced and emerging economies. Second, emerging markets face lower thresholds for external debt (public and private)—which is usually denominated in a foreign currency. When external debt reaches 60 percent of GDP, annual growth declines by about two percent; for higher levels, growth rates are roughly cut in half."


So while Tihipko is right to warn about excessive debt levels, from a growth perspective, Ukraine seems still not to be over-indebted.

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