Tuesday, September 15, 2009

Lies Damned Lies and Statistics

Ukrinform reports on Tymochenko claiming the following

http://www.ukrinform.ua/eng/order/?id=169648

"We expect that we will return to the pre-crisis level by the year-end," she said.

Tymoshenko showed a table pointing that an unemployment growth started after August 2008 and there were 509.5 thousand jobless. "We then saw a rapid growth and reached the peak in February (906.1 thousand). And from March we have been experiencing a positive dynamics, which means that people return to jobs," the Premier underscored.


The suggestion here is that employment will be back where it was before the crisis - if this would be true, it would mean that Ukraine produced say 15% less (the drop in GDP) with about the same number of people, which would not be a good signal

These strange unemployment statistics made me write an open ed for Economicheskie Izvestia at the end of July 2009 which you can find here

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